Geopolitical tremors are morphing into seismic shifts, and while Africa is not the epicentre of this global earthquake, it faces some of the most serious potential aftershocks. It is clearer than ever how interconnected our planet is; international conflict impacts local resilience, and capital flows reshape in search of stable ground. Let’s take a look at what our team has been reading amidst this rapidly changing landscape.
No such thing as local war
The ripple effects of the war in Iran have materialised across Africa, hitting the continent’s economies and societies in multiple ways. Recent analysis highlights Africa’s structural vulnerabilities as amplifiers of the shock: dependence on foreign markets, commodity price volatility, and infrastructure gaps mean the region isn’t well shielded against the conflict’s negative impacts.
Surging oil prices are cascading into increased costs for transport, food, and the general cost of living, disproportionately affecting already vulnerable populations. Many African countries rely heavily on fertilizers imported via the Strait of Hormuz, meaning agricultural activity will be undermined and have serious repercussions for the continent’s food security. There are rising fears over strategic infrastructure becoming targets for proxy warfare, potentially compounding “local” crises.
Despite all this uncertainty, we feel a rising sense of optimism. Africa is proving its relative resilience during this turbulence: government bonds in local currencies have delivered significantly stronger results than many peers; there is renewed investor appetite in African debt; national equity markets like Ghana and Nigeria are performing extremely well; local investors are increasingly involved in local ventures, mapping opportunities and guiding foreign capital. We’re also seeing positive developments in our own portfolio, with global upheaval revealing the advantages of a local focus, as well as creating opportunities to more quickly transition to resilient products, processes and business models.
The continent is actively demonstrating its potential, determination, and innovative drive in the face of heightened international anxieties., Africa’s leaders now face urgent questions: can they navigate global power struggles without becoming subsumed by them? Will a more unified, self-reliant Africa emerge from this moment of pressure?
Africa: not emerging, but accelerating
In the private sector, there is already some visible shifting in Africa’s narrative. More actors, like Emeka Ajanae in April’s Afridigest, are pushing back against the “emerging market” label altogether, arguing that Africa should instead be understood as a growth market that is increasingly central to global opportunity: “The numbers vary by source … But the direction is consistent across all of them: Africa’s on an upward growth trajectory as the rest of the world cools.” Recognising and championing this more up-to-date narrative moves focus from risk to potential, dependency to agency, and acknowledges innovation as a defining characteristic of Africa’s ecosystem.
New capital, new rules
One example of that innovation is the emergence of hybrid financial instruments tailored to African startups. Blending elements of equity, revenue share, and options, these structures are designed to better match the realities of building businesses in markets where traditional venture capital models don’t always fit. It’s a reminder that with the right structuring, so much more is possible for both founders and investors.
Global capital slows, local ingenuity rises
At the same time, the global private equity landscape is cooling. Fundraising has declined internationally, reflecting tighter financial conditions and increased investor caution: “Global private equity funds raised $735.3 billion in 2025. This represents the lowest full-year total since 2020 and a 20 percent decline from the previous five-year average,” reports Private Equity International.
For Africa, this could mean fewer large pools of external capital in the short term. But if anything, this constraint is reinforcing a longer-term trend: the need to mobilise domestic capital, deepen local financial markets, and build investment models less reliant on global cycles.
Regulation is a valuable partner for sustainability
Encouragingly, the rising opportunities for self-determination are also mirroring stronger alignment between growth and sustainability across the continent. Uganda recently banned several imported agrichemicals, making a significant regulatory shift as public health and environmental protection gain priority. We see this as an important signal for the continent’s agricultural sector: policymakers are increasingly willing to take action to ensure resilient, sustainable growth.
Stories that matter
Amidst global and national concerns, focusing on individual humans and their stories is a healing and motivating balm. The Goodwell team eagerly ordered multiple copies of “How we made it in Africa,” by Jaco Martiz, a new collection of entrepreneurial stories taking a candid look at what it really takes to build and scale businesses in African markets.
These stories aren’t about easy success and happily-ever-afters: they are accounts of setbacks, reinvention, and resilience. From losing a home to listing a company, from informal trade to industrial supply chains, these stories offer a powerful reminder that creative, determined individuals are Africa’s most valuable resource.
