In the bustling streets of Dar Es Salaam, Elia Timotheo’s company East Africa Foods didn’t just survive the 2022 COVID-19 backlash, it actually thrived.

While global markets reeled from uncertainty, his platform connecting smallholder farmers to urban off-takers saw its user base almost triple. Elia’s story exemplifies a broader truth: market turbulence, while challenging, can create unprecedented opportunities for impact investors focusing on inclusive businesses across Africa. 

Today’s global markets are experiencing significant volatility, with investors worldwide grappling with uncertainty. However, for impact investors eyeing Africa’s inclusive business landscape, this turbulence presents a window of opportunity. Inclusive businesses, which integrate underserved communities into their value chains while maintaining commercial viability, are showing resilience and growth potential. 

Last year was not entirely what we had hoped for. We are in the business of doing well by doing good, and our pragmatic optimism was occasionally tested as we witnessed a variety of struggles around the globe and on the African continent. We continue to see tragedies like war, famine, and climate disasters, and witness major political power shifts, and, as an investment firm, we dealt directly with challenges like unstable currencies and a tough fundraising environment for ourselves and our portfolio companies. World-over, reputable institutions report growing insecurity and a distrust of traditional power structures. Many people are struggling to handle the uncertainty of what is coming next.  

But it’s times like these that breed innovation. There is something deep in the human spirit that relentlessly seeks hopeful opportunity. That’s why we see plenty of reasons to remain positive about the growth opportunities on the continent, especially for investment strategies that seek a positive social or climate impact.

A new sense of (local) community

We believe that people have good reason to be concerned about political developments in the world. Major political developments change the foundations of international relations and impact the global economy. However, when things seem to get out of control at a national or global or environmental level, people put more energy into what they can control.  

The old activist’s adage “think globally, act locally” proves true for us. Focus turns to the local community and surroundings, and our “local for local” approach is more relevant than ever. For us, investing in local entrepreneurs who deeply understand their communities has proven effective no matter what’s playing out on the larger world stage. The beliefs and principles of inclusive entrepreneurs as well as investors act like a beacon, calling like-minded people into the fold, and powering the potential to continue making positive change in the face of geopolitical turbulence. Is it easy? Certainly not. Does it require trust and grit? It certainly does. Does it make sense? Absolutely.  

As past crises, like COVID-19 and the post-pandemic economic development have shown us, these challenging moments are precisely when new developments and innovation rise from the bottom up, taking root, rather than trickling down. Turbulent times create the need and urgency, opening up opportunities for collaboration based on shared purpose and renewed appreciation for partnerships.

Increasing private sector impact

It’s increasingly clear that governments and regulators aren’t always up to the challenge of addressing the most pressing problems of our times. We’re also witnessing some national leaders don’t govern with their citizens or the needs of society as a whole in mind.  

One example is the outcomes of UN COP29, which many perceived as a disappointment. Yet the talks did conclude with developed countries committing to raise an annual USD 300 billion in climate finance for developing countries by 2035. It’s a good start, but still only a fraction of the full USD 1.3 trillion targe. Much of this remaining funding will need to be covered by the private sector. Although it is too soon to say if these promises will be kept, it’s clear that the private sector is increasingly stepping up to fill the gap left by governments, from posing climate solutions (and financing) to addressing social mobility. 

And at a corporate level, we surely see some projects that could be categorised as greenwashing or brand rehabilitation, but that is balanced by plenty of organisations that are making a real difference. Take LEGO for example, which plans to open a new carbon-neutral factory in Vietnam this year, employing up to 4000 people. We are also inspired by the hundreds of large brands working with WeConnect to support female entrepreneurs and increase their use of female-run suppliers.  

In our sector, we see new peers entering the space with theme-related investment funds targeting specific climate challenges or health issues. We welcome investors in our funds that are new to impact investing and emerging markets yet recognise the need for the private sector to fill funding gaps. We’re also witnessing a strong rise in support for the 2X Challenge (a gender lens investing movement), as well as more and more mainstream investors launching SDG focused products and investment solutions.  

Finally, recent research concludes there are now more than 10 million social enterprises worldwide, founded with the aim of creating social and environmental change. These companies – the ones truly making a difference in their communities on the African continent – are exactly where we’ll continue to invest. 

Changing value of impact investments

That’s not to say everything has been smooth sailing in the African impact investment space. Current market dynamics have resulted in downward pressure on global venture capital and private equity investments. This increased pressure on fundraising while extending the median lifespan and exit timelines for even the best performing funds. That in turn triggered a reset of business valuations across African markets.  

But there’s silver lining here. This adjustment doesn’t merely represent a discount – it reflects a more sustainable alignment between impact potential and financial returns. Companies that once seemed out of reach for impact-focused investors are now presenting compelling opportunities for engagement in sectors that can truly shift the pendulum of inequality.  

What makes this moment particularly significant is the proven resilience of African inclusive businesses throughout the economic cycle. These enterprises, often focused on essential services and basic needs, demonstrate remarkable adaptability.

The interconnected power of a new generation

While a baby slow-down is a concern in other parts of the world, in Africa, the population is booming: the continent reached 1.5 billion inhabitants in 2024 and over 60% of the population is under 25. With the world’s working-age population increasing by nearly 2 billion over the next 30 years, the vast majority (some estimates go up to 80%) will be on the African continent. This will present many challenges and a vast economic opportunity.  

Innovation, often born of necessity during challenging times, is accelerating across the continent. Market pressures are pushing businesses to develop more efficient, sustainable models. The current environment has also fostered more favorable partnership opportunities. As traditional investors pull back, impact investors find themselves in a stronger position to negotiate terms and structure deals that maintain a strong focus on social impact alongside financial returns. This shift is particularly evident in sectors like renewable energy and financial inclusion, where innovative financing structures are emerging.  

These changes emphasise how everything is connected. There’s an increasing understanding that you can’t fix one small part of a problem: you need to take a holistic, intersectional view, and consider the whole story. People don’t need charity alone: we need the root causes of poverty to be addressed.  

Impact investors are uniquely placed to foster such intersectional solutions. At Goodwell, we actively invest in financial innovations that facilitate an inclusive financial ecosystem, for example. By increasing access to basic financial services – like savings, payments, insurance, and loans – people can participate more fully in society. We understand that agriculture isn’t just about maximum harvest yield; it’s about climate resilience, gender equality, access to markets and financing, mobility, and logistics. A sustainable agricultural system requires investment in every aspect of a value chain. We know that acknowledging the interconnectedness of our planet – and problems – is the only way to tackle such huge challenges. Across our industry, we see that awareness and desire for systemic change and holistic solutions is gradually driving deeper, systemic changes, as intersectional innovations prove their worth. 

A growing interest in impact investing

With such an ongoing groundswell of support for systemic progress, it’s no surprise that impact investing has gone mainstream. GIIN reports that the impact investing market has now grown to a staggering USD$1.571 trillion globally. Clearly, investors understand that impact isn’t detrimental to financial returns – it can even improve them. 

However, an increase of impact investing does change how money moves, echoing the growth of a local focus discussed above. Some money will always continue flowing across borders, but local and national interests will likely be closer to investors’ hearts in 2025, making the work of Africa-focused organisations like Goodwell more vital than ever.  

What do all of these developments mean for us? Well, that we’re on the right track! When humanity works together, we can always find ways to adapt to – or even overcome – major challenges. But to get there, we can’t ignore the necessities of a decent life. That’s why we need to continue our intense focus on expanding access to basic goods and services for un(der)served communities. No matter what the latest news story, people will always need the essentials.  

The opportunity in African inclusive businesses during market turbulence isn’t just about financial returns – it’s about catalysing sustainable, inclusive growth across the continent. As Wim van der Beek, founder of Goodwell, notes, “Many investments we’ve made were when the market faced uncertainty and turbulence. That’s when you find businesses that are resilient , innovating and expanding their impact. We are well positioned with our locally led investment teams, encouraging the talents and energy of the next generation, and actively investing in organisations, goods, and services that positively impact entire ecosystems.” 

For impact investors considering African inclusive businesses, the current market turbulence offers a rare confluence of opportunities. However, success requires a thoughtful approach. Careful due diligence, strong local partnerships, and a long-term perspective remain crucial. The most successful investors will be those who can balance patience with decisive action, understanding that market uncertainty often precedes transformative growth.  

For those willing to look beyond the immediate market noise, African inclusive businesses offer a compelling proposition: the chance to generate meaningful returns while contributing to lasting social and economic transformation. The question isn’t whether to invest, but how to engage thoughtfully and effectively in this moment of opportunity.